Introduction
Maybe you’re like us and often wonder, “How long could I evade the police before getting caught?” Data scientist Christopher Peters, a renowned expert in criminal analytics, found that criminals on the FBI’s Most Wanted Fugitives List typically stay on the run for about six years before being captured. Peters has a criminology and data science background, allowing him to bring unique insights into his research on fugitive behaviour. He calculated this by examining the total time 500 fugitives spent on the list since its creation in 1950.
Survival Analysis Method
Understanding Survival Analysis
Peters used a statistical method called “survival analysis,” commonly used in medical research, to determine how long these criminals aimed to stay free. Survival analysis is a branch of statistics that analyzes the expected duration until one or more events happen, such as death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. In this context, it was used to estimate the time until capture for fugitives.
How Survival Analysis Works
- Censoring: In survival analysis, not all subjects may experience the event of interest (in this case, capture). Some fugitives may still be on the run, and their capture time is unknown. This is known as censoring.
- Survival Function: This function provides the probability that a fugitive will remain at large up to a specific time.
- Hazard Function: This function gives the instantaneous potential for capture at any given time, assuming the fugitive has evaded capture up to that point.
Steps in Survival Analysis
- Data Collection: Gather data on fugitives, including their time at large and whether they have been captured.
- Censoring Identification: Identify which fugitives are still on the run and mark them as censored.
- Model Fitting: Use statistical software to fit survival models, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator or Cox proportional hazards model.
- Interpretation: Analyze the survival and hazard functions to understand the probability and risk of capture over time.
Case Studies
Eric Rudolph
- Data: Eric Rudolph evaded capture for five years before being arrested.
- Analysis: His time on the run was included in the survival analysis, with the capture event marking the end of his evasion period.
- Findings: The analysis showed that individuals with survival skills and hiding in remote locations could significantly extend their evasion period, but the risk of capture remained constant over time.
Edward Joseph Dwyer
- Data: Edward Joseph Dwyer evaded capture for nearly 30 years.
- Analysis: His extended evasion period was analyzed to understand how long-term fugitives stay hidden.
- Findings: The study indicated that those who adopt new identities and live low-profile lives can evade capture for decades, but modern identification technologies eventually catch up with them.
Whitey Bulger
- Data: Whitey Bulger evaded capture for 16 years before being arrested.
- Analysis: His evasion period was analyzed, combined with his use of aliases and frequent relocations.
- Findings: The survival analysis revealed that while frequent relocations and aliases can help in the short term, increased public awareness and media attention ultimately lead to capture.
Average Time on the Run
1.67 Years on Average
Peters concluded that most people on the Most Wanted List stay free for an average of 1.67 years without a new identity. His analysis examined various factors affecting how long a fugitive can evade capture. He discovered that factors such as the severity of the crime, the resources available to the fugitive, and the efforts of law enforcement agencies all play crucial roles.
Factors Influencing Capture
- Multiple Arrest Warrants: Fugitives with multiple warrants are likelier to attract law enforcement attention.
- Violent Crimes: Those who commit violent crimes are pursued more aggressively.
- Location: Fugitives hiding in remote or well-protected areas can evade capture longer but face intense scrutiny once located.
Despite these factors, most criminals are eventually brought to justice. Peters found that only 1% of fugitives were still at large after 20 years, showing that while criminals can elude capture for long periods, it’s a losing battle in most cases.
“X” Factors
Even with mitigating factors, time is not on the fugitive’s side. After 20 years at large, only 1% have yet to be apprehended. Here are some key “X” factors that influence the duration a fugitive can evade capture:
Type of Crime Committed
- Violent crimes like murder and terrorism lead to more intense and sustained pursuit by law enforcement.
- Non-violent crimes may not attract as much immediate attention but still lead to eventual capture due to persistent investigations.
Resources Available
- Financial resources can significantly extend a fugitive’s time on the run.
- Access to money allows fugitives to move frequently, change identities, and secure better hideouts.
- Support networks, such as family, friends, or criminal organizations, provide additional resources and safe havens.
Geographic Location
- Fugitives hiding in remote or hard-to-reach areas can evade capture longer due to the difficulty of access for law enforcement.
- Urban environments offer anonymity in crowds but also have extensive surveillance systems that can aid capture.
- International fugitives face varied challenges based on their chosen countries, as some nations may cooperate more with global law enforcement efforts.
Use of Technology
- Advanced technologies like encrypted communication, counterfeit documents, and surveillance countermeasures can help fugitives stay undetected.
- Technological savvy fugitives can avoid digital footprints, making it harder for law enforcement to track them.
Law Enforcement Efforts
- The priority level and resources law enforcement agencies allocate to capture a fugitive significantly affect the duration of evasion.
- High-profile fugitives attract more attention and resources, leading to quicker capture.
- Collaboration between local, national, and international law enforcement agencies enhances the chances of apprehension.
Personal Characteristics
- Fugitives with strong survival skills, such as Eric Rudolph, who survived in the wilderness, can evade capture longer.
- Psychological resilience helps fugitives withstand the pressures and stress of being on the run.
- Adaptability and quick thinking are crucial for responding to unexpected challenges and changing circumstances.
Public Awareness and Tips
- Media coverage and public awareness campaigns increase the chances of capture by generating tips and sightings.
- Anonymous tips and information from the public often lead to breakthroughs in long-standing cases.
Examples of “X” Factors in Action
- Eric Rudolph:
- Utilized survival skills to live off the land in the Appalachian wilderness.
- Avoided digital footprints and relied on physical survival techniques.
- Edward Joseph Dwyer:
- Lived under multiple assumed identities.
- Worked various jobs to support himself, avoiding high-profile activities.
- Whitey Bulger:
- Used financial resources and support networks to live under an alias.
- I relocated frequently to avoid detection and finally settled in Santa Monica, California.
Capture Statistics
Once on the FBI’s Most Wanted List, fugitives evade capture for an average of three years. Many factors influence how long a fugitive remains at large, including their location and tracking methods. However, the FBI’s success rate in apprehending fugitives shows that no criminal can escape for good. Ultimately, the capture of any fugitive is only a matter of time.
Common Mistakes Fugitives Make
- Unnecessary Risks: Traveling in large groups or exposing themselves in public places can quickly draw attention.
- Underestimating Law Enforcement: Many fugitives underestimate the resources and skills of law enforcement, leading to their capture.
- Lack of Precautions: Fugitives must take extreme precautions and exercise caution to avoid detection.
Tips for Remaining Undercover
- Travel Solo or in Small Groups: This makes it more difficult for law enforcement to detect them and increases their chances of blending in unnoticed.
- Avoid Public Places and High-Traffic Areas: This reduces the likelihood of drawing unwanted attention and minimizes exposure to security cameras.
- Be Discreet When Communicating: Use untraceable methods like chat apps or burner phones to stay connected while remaining under the radar.
- Use Advanced Surveillance Technologies: Motion-sensing cameras and tracking devices can help fugitives stay aware of potential threats and provide more escape options.
- Stay Updated on Law Enforcement Techniques: Monitor police radio communications and leverage informants to gather intel on upcoming operations.
Recent Trends and Technological Advancements
Technological advancements make law enforcement agencies more adept at tracking and capturing fugitives. New tools such as facial recognition software, biometric tracking, and enhanced surveillance methods have significantly increased the success rate of capturing criminals. For instance, integrating AI in analyzing surveillance footage and monitoring social media activity has led to quicker identification and location of fugitives.
High-Profile Capture Cases
Eric Rudolph
- Crimes Committed: Bombings at the 1996 Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta, abortion clinics, and a gay nightclub.
- Time on the Run: Evaded capture for five years (1998-2003).
- Hiding Tactics: Lived in the Appalachian wilderness, surviving by scavenging, stealing supplies, and using survivalist techniques.
- Capture: Arrested in May 2003 in Murphy, North Carolina, while scavenging for food in a dumpster.
- Outcome: Pleaded guilty to avoid the death penalty and was sentenced to multiple life terms without parole.
Edward Joseph Dwyer
- Crimes Committed: Escaped from a New York prison in 1985; initially incarcerated for a series of armed robberies.
- Time on the Run: Evaded capture for nearly 30 years (1985-2014).
- Hiding Tactics: Lived under multiple assumed identities and worked various jobs to support himself.
- Capture: Arrested in 2014 while trying to renew his driver’s license under an assumed name; caught due to a fingerprint match in the database.
- Outcome: He returned to prison to serve the remainder of his original sentence, with additional time added for the escape.
Whitey Bulger
- Crimes Committed: Involved in organized crime as the leader of the Winter Hill Gang; engaged in racketeering, murder, extortion, and drug trafficking.
- Time on the Run: Evaded capture for 16 years (1995-2011).
- Hiding Tactics: Lived under the alias “Charles Gasko” and stayed in various locations across the U.S. and abroad; settled in Santa Monica, California, with his girlfriend, Catherine Greig.
- Capture: Arrested in June 2011 in Santa Monica after a tip-off following a renewed publicity campaign by the FBI.
- Outcome: Convicted of multiple charges, including murder and racketeering; sentenced to two life terms plus five years; murdered in prison in 2018.
In Conclusion
Fugitives must be proactive and stay one step ahead of law enforcement to evade capture for long. With proper precautions and careful planning, criminals can successfully elude authorities and remain on the run indefinitely. However, the constant evolution of law enforcement techniques and technological advancements makes it increasingly tricky for fugitives to stay free.
A fugitive has unlawfully escaped from police custody or avoided arrest. How long a fugitive stays free depends on preparation and luck. As law enforcement improves, fugitives are identified and captured more quickly. Frequent location changes, acquiring a new identity, and using new travel methods are vital to staying free. However, no fugitive can be sure how long they might remain free as technological advancements make it easier to identify criminals on the run.
If you would like to work with a professional team that can help make your transition to a life of freedom, contact Amicus Int. for New Identity services today.
